The Cubs will Squeak by the Mets Today

The Cubs will Squeak by the Mets Today

Last Night’s Recap


2007-08-04

Last Night’s Recap
Pick – Yankees over White Sox
Result – Loss
Amount - 50 units
Season Bankroll- Even

Today’s Forecast:
Even though Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez has pitched brilliantly for the Mets this season, he is running into a tough customer is Chicago today in Carlos Zambrano as the Mets arrive to face another NL Central leader in the Cubs.

Last night, New York pounded the Brewers 12-4 to win two of three at Miller Park. Chicago moved ahead of the Brewers into first place in the Central on Wednesday, and remained one percentage point ahead of them despite yesterday’s 10-6 loss to the Phillies.

I looked back on the past schedule and saw that the Mets won three of four over the Cubs at Shea Stadium May 14-17. However, Chicago stunk back then and has been playing much better baseball lately. The biggest reason for their turnaround has been because Zambrano has pitched like the ace he is. Since June 6, Zambrano leads the majors with a 9-2 record, 1.41 ERA and .143 opponent batting average. He has won all four of his starts since the All-Star break, allowing just two runs in 25 1-3 innings in those games, and was named the NL pitcher of the month for July on Thursday.

And if that’s not enough for you to believe me, he has been nearly unhittable at Wrigley Field since the break, yielding just five hits in 11 2-3 innings over two games. He's 4-1 with a 0.78 ERA in his last five outings at home after starting the year 1-4 with a 7.91 ERA in his first six starts at home. Plus, Zambrano was sharp in his only start of the year against New York, allowing one run and six hits in eight innings of a 10-1 win on May 15 at Shea. He has won his last three starts over the Mets, and is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA in five games - four starts - lifetime against them.

Don’t get me wrong, El Duque has been solid as well. He allowed one run, three hits and struck out eight in seven innings of a 3-1 win over Washington in the first game of a doubleheader on Saturday. The right-hander improved to 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA in his last seven starts. Now the downside. Hernandez was roughed up in his only career start against the Cubs, yielding five runs and seven hits in just 1 2-3 innings of a 13-7 victory at Wrigley last July 16.

Offensively for the Mets, David Wright had four hits Thursday, including his 19th homer of the season, and is batting .550 (11-for-20) with seven runs and five RBIs in his last six games. He's hitting .429 (12-for-28) with two home runs and eight RBIs in his last eight games against the Cubs, but is just 1-for-9 lifetime against Zambrano.

But to be honest, all signs are pointing to Chicago in this one. Hopefully, I’m right.

Good luck with your action tonight!

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